Carlton took a commanding step towards securing a place in the AFL's inaugural wildcard round on Sunday night, defeating a depleted St Kilda by 44 points at Marvel Stadium in what has become one of the competition's most remarkable mid-season turnaround stories. The Blues' 10th win from 12 matches under interim coach Josh Fraser leaves them sitting 10th on the ladder and two games clear of the injury-ravaged Saints with a fortnight remaining in the home-and-away season.
In the same venue earlier that evening, Carlton's AFLW side opened the new season with a 26-point win over St Kilda, 9.12 (66) to 6.4 (40), in front of a crowd that swelled to more than 20,000 — a result that further underlined the club's current momentum across both programs.
Fraser's Carlton keep rolling with another defensive masterclass
When Michael Voss resigned as senior AFL coach in May, Carlton had managed just a single win from nine outings. The transformation since Fraser stepped in has been striking. Sunday's victory was the eighth time in Fraser's tenure that Carlton conceded fewer than 80 points, with St Kilda restricted to just eight goals and 62 points for the match.
The performance was headlined by Francis Evans, playing for his third AFL club, who delivered what many considered a career-best outing: 22 disposals, 12 inside 50s, 10 score involvements and a goal. George Hewett was equally influential through the corridor, racking up 20 of his 26 disposals before half-time, by which point Carlton had already established a 25-point buffer. Ruckman Marc Pittonet kicked two goals and got the better of his former teammate Tom De Koning and Rowan Marshall in the hitouts.
If Carlton defeat the Western Bulldogs next Sunday, they will lock in a wildcard berth — an outcome that would significantly strengthen Fraser's case to be handed the senior coaching role on a permanent basis.
A nightmare night for St Kilda
St Kilda's evening began badly and deteriorated rapidly. Star midfielder Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, who had barely trained during the week due to a hip problem, suffered a left hamstring injury in a chase on the wing early in the first quarter and managed just nine minutes of football. The club ruled him out shortly afterwards, and his season is now considered likely to be over.
Mason Wood followed him to the bench before half-time with a calf complaint, while Tom De Koning (right shoulder), Liam Ryan (left shoulder) and Bradley Hill (left knee) all played through pain. Hill's continued involvement was particularly notable after he appeared to hyperextend his knee when landing from an aerial contest in the second term and was briefly helped from the field. He went on to finish with a match-high 31 disposals, while Max Hall contributed 30 disposals, two goals and 10 clearances in one of St Kilda's better individual performances.
The match also served as the sixth annual Spud's Game, held in honour of the late Danny Frawley. The occasion carried emotional weight, but it was a difficult night for the Saints regardless. Ex-Blue recruits Jack Silvagni and De Koning were loudly booed by Carlton supporters throughout the evening — a pointed reminder of the significant off-season investment St Kilda made that has yet to pay dividends. Sam Flanders was already lost for the season to an Achilles tendon rupture, while De Koning missed more than a month mid-season with a punctured lung and broken ribs.
Sitting 11th, St Kilda remain mathematically alive in the finals race but face a near-impossible path: they must beat both Richmond and Gold Coast in the final two rounds, while also requiring Carlton and the Bulldogs to lose their remaining games.
AFLW Blues silence doubters in season opener
Earlier on Sunday, Carlton's women used the double-header format to make a statement of intent for the new AFLW season. Despite being without Sophie McKay (calf), best and fairest winner Keeley Sherar (quad) and ruck recruit Lauren Bella (calf), the Blues were rarely troubled until the final quarter.
Captain Abbie McKay was outstanding with 32 disposals and nine clearances, supported by Mimi Hill (28 disposals), recruit Claudia Whitfort (27 touches), Irish star Dayna Finn (22 disposals) and Lila Keck, who finished with 21 disposals and two goals. Lily Goss also kicked two goals, while young forward Poppy Scholz sparked an early run of four consecutive goals with a sharp opener.
St Kilda showed character, cutting a 31-point deficit to 11 in the final term through two superb goals from Amber Clarke, but Darcy Vescio's second goal effectively ended the fightback and Keck added a sealing score. Tyanna Smith was St Kilda's standout with 625 metres gained, eight clearances and two goals on the run.
The crowd, which grew to 20,455 by the final quarter, has already prompted calls for more double-header fixtures to be scheduled across the season. Carlton next host Adelaide at Princes Park, while St Kilda travel to face Geelong.
What's next for both clubs
On the men's side, Carlton's match against the Western Bulldogs next Sunday shapes as a potential wildcard-clinching occasion — and likely a significant moment in determining whether Josh Fraser transitions from interim to permanent senior coach. St Kilda, meanwhile, need results to fall their way from multiple directions just to remain in finals contention with two rounds to play.
