A major announcement outlining a crackdown on Australia's immigration system has been delayed at the last minute after elements of the plan could not be finalised in time, even as a leading migration expert warns the country's national debate is focused on the wrong numbers entirely.
Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke had been expected to unveil a package of new measures on Thursday aimed at reducing Australia's net migration figures. The announcement was abruptly postponed when key components of the plan failed to come together ahead of the scheduled release.
The delay arrives amid growing pressure on Labor from One Nation to take stronger action to bring net migration numbers down — a politically charged environment that has sharpened focus on immigration as a defining issue in the national conversation.
Expert Says Net Migration Is the Wrong Focus
While the political debate has centred heavily on net migration, Australian National University Migration Hub director Professor Alan Gamlen argues that framing risks missing what he describes as the real issue.
Gamlen told a breakfast television program that policymakers need to shift their attention toward Australia's rapidly expanding temporary migrant population, rather than fixating on the net migration headline figure.
"One is the permanent program, which has been capped and stable for many decades, and the other is the temporary migration program, which was deregulated about 25 years ago and has mushroomed since then and been very volatile since the pandemic," he said.
He noted there had also been a significant buildup of backlogs in visa applications, compounding pressures on the system.
Gamlen cautioned that net migration can be a misleading figure when viewed in isolation, because it bundles together several very different types of movement into and out of the country — some tightly controlled through visa programs, others not controllable or appropriate to restrict, such as Australian citizens travelling abroad or returning home.
Temporary Visas at the Heart of Australia's Migration Pressures
According to Gamlen, many of the concerns Australians hold about migration — including migrant exploitation, housing and infrastructure pressure, and social cohesion — are largely products of the temporary migration system rather than the permanent program.
"These measures that the government is considering introducing seem to be really about trying to regulate the size and composition of that temporary population, to bring the system back into stability," he said.
One of the central challenges, he explained, is the sheer complexity of Australia's temporary visa arrangements. The structure currently allows people to remain in the country for extended periods by moving between different visa categories — a feature that limits the government's ability to manage or control the overall temporary population effectively.
"That gives some lack of control to government over the temporary visa system," Gamlen said.
The COVID-19 pandemic has also left a lasting imprint on the numbers. Fewer temporary visa-holders have departed Australia than would normally be expected, following widespread visa extensions granted during the pandemic years. That imbalance between arrivals and departures has contributed to an overall swelling of the temporary migrant population.
What the Government Is Considering
Reports indicate the government is weighing measures designed to give it greater authority over the temporary visa system. Among the options under consideration is the ability to prioritise the processing of onshore visa applications over offshore ones — a mechanism that could help authorities better manage the composition and size of the temporary migrant population within Australia's borders.
The political backdrop remains significant. The rise of One Nation, driven in part by voter anxieties over housing costs and economic pressures, has intensified demands for tougher immigration controls — making the timing of Burke's delayed announcement all the more politically sensitive for the Labor government.
It is understood the government expects to release the package once outstanding elements of the plan are resolved, though no revised date has been confirmed.
