Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan is fighting for her political survival after an extraordinary Sunday night meeting of Labor factional conveners resolved to move against her leadership, with sources indicating she has been told she no longer commands the support of the parliamentary caucus — just four months out from the November 28 state election.
The closed-door gathering, which drew conveners from across both the Labor Left and Right factions, was convened specifically to assess whether Allan retains sufficient backing to lead the party to the poll. Four sources with knowledge of the meeting said there was broad agreement in the room that her days as premier are numbered, though the precise mechanics of how a challenge would proceed remained unresolved.
Allan Defiant Despite Losing Caucus Confidence, Sources Say
Despite being told on Sunday night that she had lost the support of Labor's caucus, Allan — who spent the evening at her Bendigo home with senior advisers — made clear to her supporters that she would not resign, regardless of what factional leaders decide.
Seven Victorian Labor sources told this masthead they believe Allan would lose a vote of the party's 69 MPs if the question were put directly. However, at least one MP pushed back on that assessment, insisting the premier still commands the numbers and dismissing the conveners' meeting as unrepresentative.
"The premier absolutely has the numbers," that MP said. "Some people don't want to do the hard work. They want things on a plate and I can tell you now the caucus are there behind the premier."
There is also frustration among some MPs — particularly within the dominant Left faction — that factional conveners did not adequately consult rank-and-file parliamentarians before the Sunday gathering, with one MP noting that not every faction was even represented at the meeting.
Carroll Touted As Replacement But Rules Out Forcing The Issue
Deputy Premier Ben Carroll has emerged as the most likely successor to Allan, but the path to a leadership change remains far from straightforward. Carroll has signalled to colleagues that while he would put his hand up if the leadership became vacant, he would not use his numbers to actively destabilise the premier.
His position is further complicated by a very public pledge made at a press conference last month. Looking directly at reporters, Carroll declared he would not challenge Allan, adding: "I've got a young daughter at home, and I couldn't be more proud to make sure that she grows up knowing that I supported Jacinta Allan to be a world-class premier and get re-elected in her own right."
Multiple sources from both factions acknowledged it would be extremely difficult for Carroll — who sits on the Right — to now launch a challenge, even with some within Allan's own Left faction urging him to step forward.
Among the options being weighed is a formal delegation of factional leaders approaching Allan and asking her to stand aside voluntarily. Two sources said they doubted Allan would exit without a fight but conceded it was not inconceivable she could be persuaded if it became irrefutably clear she lacked caucus support.
One Allan supporter, speaking anonymously, warned that if Sunday's meeting demonstrated a majority of MPs wanted a leadership change, the premier could face a vote of no confidence at Tuesday's caucus meeting — when MPs return to state parliament. "It would be a very brave premier that continued" in those circumstances, the source said.
Dire Polling Fuels Urgency Inside The Party
The push against Allan is being driven, at least in part, by polling that paints a grim picture for Labor heading into the state election. The most recent survey puts the Coalition ahead of Labor 56 to 44 on a two-party preferred basis. Even more alarmingly for the government, Labor has slipped behind One Nation on primary votes — with the Coalition on 29 per cent and One Nation registering 24 per cent, ahead of Labor.
One union leader has warned of an "orange wave", suggesting One Nation could win as many as 34 seats if the polling numbers hold through to election day.
Allan is facing pressure on multiple fronts beyond the numbers — including ongoing scrutiny over Big Build corruption allegations, the cost of living squeeze on Victorian households, and a wave of teachers' strikes that landed in the headlines this week.
What Happens Next — And Why It's Complicated
Any formal leadership contest would trigger a previously untested party process in which a new leader is chosen by a combined vote of caucus members and the broader party membership, with equal weighting given to each group. The process could take up to six weeks — a potentially crippling timeline for a government already behind in the polls.
Under those rules, if both Allan and Carroll were candidates in a spill, both would be stood aside from their day-to-day roles and an interim leader would be appointed to run the government in the meantime. The deputy leader would step in to manage the administration while the ballot proceeded.
As with a previous bout of leadership speculation in June, the pathway to removing Allan remains lined with assumptions that have not yet been tested in practice. Whether the factional conveners' resolve translates into action — or dissolves under the weight of competing interests and procedural complexity — may become clear as early as Tuesday.
