Melbourne is on track for a rare stretch of dry, sunny weather — an unusual development for mid-winter, when cold fronts typically roll through every few days. The fine conditions are expected to take hold from Friday and should last through the weekend and into next week.
Why Melbourne is getting a break from the rain
A high pressure system is the key driver behind the settled spell. Unlike the previous high that brought a significant cold outbreak, this one has arrived without a sharp blast of cold air, meaning the frost risk for most areas will be lower than during the last dry period.
Some parts of regional Victoria will still experience cold overnight temperatures, but nothing as extreme or as prolonged as what was seen previously.
Before the sunshine fully establishes itself, there is still some grey to work through. Light southerly winds are drawing moisture into southern and far western Victoria, producing overcast skies and patches of foggy low cloud. It is only once the centre of the high pressure system moves to Melbourne's east that conditions will properly clear.
When to expect the sunshine — and how long it will last
That clearing is forecast to occur on Friday. Thursday could still be a dull, bleak day, but brightness is expected to return from Friday morning onwards. Crucially, the fine weather should stick around — meaning two sunny days across the weekend in the middle of July, which is a genuine bonus for Melburnians.
The fine stretch is expected to extend across a full week without wet weather, which is considered unusual for this time of year, though it follows a similarly lengthy dry spell that already occurred last week.
Melbourne's July rainfall — and what the dry week means for totals
Melbourne has recorded 36mm of rain so far in July, against a monthly average of 48mm. While that puts the city in reasonable shape at the halfway point of the month, the dry week ahead could start to eat into any chance of reaching — or exceeding — the monthly average.
The next change is expected around the middle of the following week, though at this stage it is not shaping up to be a particularly strong system.
In the meantime, with Melbourne rarely treating its residents to back-to-back sunny weekends in winter, forecasters are encouraging people to get outside and make the most of the coming days while the high pressure holds firm.
