Melbourne is in the grip of one of its most dramatic spring weather swings in months, with the city lurching from its warmest weekend since early May to midweek hail and near-freezing conditions — before a significant warm-up sets the stage for a big AFL weekend at the MCG, and a potential cold snap threatens to dampen the Brownlow Medal red carpet on Monday night.
Meteorologist Jane Bunn has mapped out the week ahead, revealing a forecast that captures everything unpredictable about a Melbourne spring.
From 25 Degrees to Hail in 48 Hours
The weekend just passed delivered some of the finest spring weather Melbourne has seen since the first day of May. Saturday reached 23°C and Sunday climbed to 25°C — warm, clear, and welcome. But the turnaround was swift and brutal.
By Tuesday lunchtime, the city had slumped to just 10°C, with gusty showers and hail sweeping through. Cold air pushed far enough to bring snow to the alpine ranges and to low levels in Tasmania, with Mount Mawson among the affected areas.
That cold outbreak, however, is already losing its grip. Thursday is expected to bring gradual improvement, with sunshine returning during the afternoon as conditions slowly stabilise.
A Warm Weekend Ahead — Including for the Footy
Friday marks the real turning point. As a high pressure system shifts eastward, it shuts off the cold southerly winds that have been driving the chill and opens the door to warmer northerlies. Friday is forecast to climb into the low 20s, before Saturday and Sunday push into the mid to high 20s — potentially warmer than last weekend.
That sets the scene for a warm MCG preliminary final on Saturday. Bunn notes the conditions could work in favour of the Brisbane Lions, who are far more accustomed to playing in heat than the Hawks and may find the warm conditions suit their game.
For a broader look at what's been driving Victoria's volatile weather patterns this season, our earlier explainer on Victoria's wild weather week breaks down the competing forces at play.
Sunday Change Could Spell Trouble for Brownlow Night
The warmth on Sunday comes with a catch. Winds are expected to pick up during the day — a reliable signal that a weather change is on its way. A cool wind change is forecast to push through late Sunday afternoon, dragging temperatures back sharply.
By Monday, Melbourne will be sitting in the mid teens — a significant drop from the weekend highs. That has direct implications for the Brownlow Medal ceremony, with Bunn warning that partners walking the red carpet on Monday evening may find themselves shivering in their finery.
Why Melbourne Spring Works This Way
The science behind this week's wild ride comes down to competing air masses. Warm air is building across Australia's interior as the continent heats up heading into summer, while Antarctic air remains active to the south. The two systems are in constant competition, and the position of the high pressure system determines which one Melbourne actually experiences on any given day.
When the high sits to Melbourne's west, it channels cold southerly winds over the city. When it shifts east, northerly warmth surges through instead. This week has seen both scenarios play out within days of each other — textbook spring behaviour for a city that rarely does predictable.
Further updates on the precise timing of Sunday's cool change are expected as the week progresses.
