Support for Pauline Hanson's One Nation has fallen for the first time in four months, with a new poll showing the party has shed three percentage points in July as key voter groups — particularly women and people born overseas — move away from the minor party's leader following her controversial policy pronouncements.
The Resolve Political Monitor, conducted between 6 and 11 July among 2,252 respondents, puts One Nation at 26 per cent, down from a high of 29 per cent in June. The Coalition has picked up the same three points, rising to 23 per cent, while Labor held steady at 28 per cent and the Greens remained unchanged at 12 per cent.
Hanson's personal ratings take a sharp hit
The slide is not confined to One Nation's primary vote. Hanson's personal standing has also deteriorated sharply. As preferred prime minister, her support fell by eight points to 25 per cent, while Prime Minister Anthony Albanese climbed four points to 33 per cent — his strongest showing on that measure in months. Opposition Leader Angus Taylor also improved, gaining five points to reach 21 per cent.
Hanson's likeability rating, which had surged to a net positive of 14 points in June, collapsed to just three points in July. One Nation's net support rating fell from 16 to eight points over the same period.
Perhaps most strikingly, voter expectations of a One Nation government have slumped. In June, 28 per cent of respondents believed One Nation could win the next federal election. That figure has now dropped to 19 per cent, while 35 per cent expect Albanese to remain in The Lodge — up one point from the previous month.
The monoculture speech and its fallout
The timing of the slide coincides directly with Hanson's address to the National Press Club, in which she outlined her vision for an Australian "monoculture" — a policy stance that poll analysts say has cost her with precisely the voter groups she had been winning over.
"The two largest losses for [Hanson] are among immigrants and females, and suggest her comments in areas like multiculturalism and abortion have shown One Nation to be the party of old after all. Mutton dressed as mutton, in policy terms," Resolve pollster Jim Reed said.
Reed noted the retreat was also visible among younger voters aged 18 to 34 and those in full employment — demographics that had been gravitating toward One Nation during its June surge.
"All are signs the varnish has come off a little," he said.
Where voters do and don't back Hanson's agenda
The poll paints a nuanced picture of Hanson's policy platform. Several of her positions attract majority support:
- 53 per cent of respondents agreed that Australia's immigration settings were wrong.
- 50 per cent agreed with her claim that many young workers were lazy, compared with 23 per cent who disagreed.
- 72 per cent supported her concerns about the priorities of the NDIS.
- 73 per cent agreed that poverty was a serious problem requiring government action.
However, her monoculture argument divided voters more evenly, with 39 per cent disagreeing and only 33 per cent in favour. Her calls to cut funding for the ABC, SBS and the United Nations were backed by only a minority of those surveyed.
Broader political landscape unchanged
Despite the shift in primary votes between the Coalition and One Nation, the overall two-party-preferred picture has not changed materially. Labor continues to lead both conservative parties when preferences are distributed, meaning neither the Coalition's modest gain nor One Nation's dip has altered the fundamental electoral arithmetic heading toward the next federal election.
Albanese's performance rating also improved, with 39 per cent of respondents rating it as good — a four-point lift and his best result since December. Taylor's performance rating rose three points to 41 per cent, with Hanson, appearing in this question for the first time, rated highest of the three at 45 per cent — a result that underscores how her policy positions, rather than her perceived competence, appear to be driving the backlash.
