It has been three years since Rugby Australia made the decision to sack head coach Dave Rennie, a move that set in motion one of the most turbulent periods in the history of the Australia national rugby union team. Three coaches later, and with a World Cup on the horizon, the question demands an honest answer: are the Wallabies in a better place now than they were back then?
The evidence of recent weeks makes that a very hard case to argue.
A Turbulent Four Years: Jones, Schmidt and Now Kiss
The chain of events that followed Rennie's dismissal is well documented. Eddie Jones came in, presided over a disastrous World Cup campaign, and departed. Joe Schmidt then took on a repair job before an awkward handover to Les Kiss completed a cycle of three coaches in four years. Through it all, one uncomfortable reality has become clearer: the Wallabies beat the All Blacks in 2022 under Rennie, and based on recent form, doing so again looks considerably harder.
Adding to the sting, Rennie has gone on to demonstrably improve the All Blacks, as many of the players he coached in Australia apparently predicted he would. In the ongoing debate about whether Wallabies losses to New Zealand reflect Australian weakness or All Blacks strength, the answer appears to vary depending on the venue. At Eden Park, the Wallabies' own deficiencies were the dominant factor. In Sydney, the All Blacks' quality was the more persuasive explanation.
Suaalii, Nawaqanitawase and the League-to-Union Problem
Two of Australian rugby's most talked-about players are presenting contrasting stories about the challenges of crossing codes. Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii faced the All Blacks on Saturday and was noted to have struggled defensively, missing five tackles as opponents exposed gaps in his Test-level game. Meanwhile, Mark Nawaqanitawase is reportedly weighing a switch of international allegiance, with Fiji and Italy both floated as options ahead of the World Cup.
The bigger picture here is instructive. The trajectories of both players in recent years suggest it is now considerably easier to move from rugby union to league than the reverse. The thirteen-man code offers more space and, generally, smaller opposition, which makes the transition to Test rugby a genuine shock to the system. The NRL produces a compelling product precisely because of those conditions, but it does not readily prepare players for the physical and tactical realities of international union.
Meredith Steps Up, Veteran Options Remain Open
Not everything from the Sydney Test pointed downward. Wallabies number ten Declan Meredith delivered a performance that represented a significant step forward. Setting aside a few poor restarts, he was almost unrecognisable from the nervous debutant who took the field against France in July. Kiss had been publicly emphatic in his backing of Meredith before the Test, and the coach's confidence appeared justified.
On the broader question of youth versus experience, Kiss has not closed the door on older heads. James O'Connor, Bernard Foley and, interestingly, Kurtley Beale, who was an influential figure for the Western Force in Super Rugby this year, were all name-checked as options still in the frame. It would not be surprising to see at least one of them in the World Cup squad.
World Cup Draw Could Be the Wallabies' Unlikely Lifeline
There is a notable irony in Saturday's loss. If the Wallabies can replicate that same result at the World Cup, it may end up being among their better outcomes. The tournament draw has again attracted criticism for placing the world's top teams, South Africa, France and New Zealand, on a collision course before the final. Two of those three sides will be eliminated in the quarterfinals or semifinals.
That opens up the other half of the draw considerably. Should the Wallabies finish in the right position, a winnable quarterfinal against England in Sydney becomes a realistic prospect. Australian rugby fans have, after all, been waiting 24 years to settle a score with Jonny Wilkinson. The draw may yet give them that chance.
