Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen to a record low with less than a month to go before the November midterm elections, as mounting cost-of-living pressures and the economic fallout from his administration's policies take a growing toll on his standing with American voters.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll found just 32 per cent of Americans approve of Trump's presidency — matching a career low set in September and reinforcing a broader trend of declining public support during the Second presidency of Donald Trump. The findings place him in historically poor territory, with one major survey finding no president heading into midterms had polled worse in data stretching back to 1990.
A collapse in support across key voting groups
The erosion in Trump's numbers is spreading across demographics that were central to his 2024 election victory. Hispanic Americans — nearly half of whom voted for Trump in 2024, up from roughly a third in 2020 — now give him an approval rating of just 24 per cent, the lowest recorded across either of his terms.
Older voters, traditionally a reliable Republican constituency, are also drifting. Americans aged 50 and over still lean Republican, but only by two percentage points (44 per cent to 42 per cent). That compares to an eight-point Republican advantage among the same age group last December — a significant narrowing heading into a crucial electoral contest.
The drag on Trump is flowing through to his party. Registered voters in the Reuters/Ipsos poll preferred Democrats over Republicans for Congress by 44 per cent to 37 per cent. A separate poll found 50 per cent of registered voters preferred Democratic control of Congress, against 45 per cent for Republicans.
Cost of living is the defining issue — and Trump's tariffs are in the frame
Across multiple surveys, the economy and cost of living dominate voters' concerns. Consumer inflation has spiked following a surge in fuel prices tied to the war with Iran that Trump launched in February. In one poll, 29 per cent of respondents named inflation as the most important problem facing the country, with a further 14 per cent citing the economy broadly. A separate survey found 57 per cent of voters placed groceries, gas or utilities among their top three issues.
Trump's tariff agenda sits at the centre of the debate. Critics blame the tariffs for pushing up the cost of goods, while the administration argues they protect American industry and generate revenue. Around 55 per cent of registered voters said Trump's policies had hurt the economy, compared to just 26 per cent who said they had helped it.
Jared Mondschein, director of research at the United States Studies Centre, said the pattern was deeply familiar. "The percentage of Americans who say that the economy is the number one issue has remained consistent since 2022," he said, noting it has held at around a third throughout that period. "More than anything else, it was economic problems in 2024 that won Donald Trump the election. In many ways, it's the number one problem that is leading to record-low approval ratings for him right now."
Multiple polls paint a consistent picture
The Reuters/Ipsos findings are far from an outlier. An NBC News poll of 1,000 registered voters found 41 per cent approving and 56 per cent disapproving of Trump — described as a second-term low in that survey series. Economist/YouGov polling placed his approval even lower at 36 per cent, with 62 per cent disapproving. An aggregation of more than 1,000 polls conducted since Inauguration Day puts his approval at 37 per cent and disapproval at 60 per cent.
Despite the weight of the numbers, analysts are cautioning against drawing firm conclusions about the midterm outcome. Polling has confounded expectations before, and experts note that translating national approval figures into individual congressional races remains an imprecise exercise. With cost of living entrenched as the dominant issue and Republican support softening among key voting blocs, however, the political environment heading into November presents a genuine challenge for the President and his party.
