New Australian research has thrown cold water on the popular theory that the rise of working from home would encourage couples to have more children, with analysis suggesting flexible work arrangements have done little to reverse the country's declining birth rate ahead of data expected to confirm fertility has fallen to a record low.
The research, produced by independent think-tank e61, finds that despite a dramatic increase in remote working during and after the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been no measurable lift in fertility among Australian women who had the option to work from home.
What the Research Found on Working From Home and Fertility
e61 research manager Pelin Akyol examined post-2020 fertility rates among women aged between 30 and 44 in occupations that could be performed remotely, comparing them against 2019 baseline levels. Despite the significant uptake of remote work across that group, the data revealed no discernible change in fertility rates.
Australia's fertility rate stood at a record low of 1.48 births per woman in 2024, after a brief and modest uptick in 2021 gave way to a renewed decline from 2022 onwards. New official figures are expected to confirm the nation's fertility rate remains at or near that historic low.
Akyol said the pandemic had effectively created a natural experiment, enabling researchers to isolate the effect of the large-scale shift to remote work that occurred after 2020. The conclusion was clear: more flexibility in where people work had not translated into more babies.
"Australia's fertility decline is driven by various factors including the cost of raising children, housing affordability, economic security and the career costs of parenthood," Akyol said. "Working from home can make some parts of family life easier. It reduces commuting time and gives workers more control over where they work, which may make it easier to combine paid work and care. However, it does not remove the financial and time costs of raising children, and it may not reduce the career costs of parenthood."
Conflicting International Evidence
The Australian findings sit at odds with research published earlier this year by a team of academics from Germany, the United States and Britain. That international study found adults who worked from home at least one day a week between 2023 and 2025 experienced higher fertility rates. When both parents worked remotely at least once a week, the research found total fertility lifted by 0.32 children per woman.
Akyol's work suggests those findings may not translate to the Australian context, where a range of structural pressures appear to outweigh any gains from greater workplace flexibility.
Housing Costs Add to the Pressure
The surge in remote working coincided with one of the most dramatic property price increases on record in Australia, with some capital cities recording rises of more than 30 per cent. Analysts have pointed to elevated housing costs, both domestically and internationally, as a significant contributor to falling fertility rates across the developed world.
The historical pattern is not without precedent. Australia's fertility rate fell by 20 per cent during the first five years of the Great Depression, illustrating how periods of economic stress tend to suppress birth rates.
Akyol also found that women in jobs more amenable to remote work had reported lower intentions to have children after 2020 and were less likely to say they wanted more children. Crucially, however, that pattern had begun before the pandemic, suggesting that working from home had not reversed pre-existing trends in family planning.
Flexibility Still Matters, Researchers Caution
Akyol was careful to stress that her findings should not be read as a dismissal of workplace flexibility altogether. She noted that the longer-term impact of remote work on fertility remained an open question, and that flexibility could still play a supporting role for families even if it was not sufficient on its own to change fertility decisions.
"Greater flexibility may still help parents combine work and care, even if it is not enough on its own to change fertility decisions. Workplace flexibility is therefore only one part of the fertility debate," she said.
The findings arrive as governments across the developed world grapple with persistently low birth rates, with policy responses ranging from direct financial payments to families to making mothers of multiple children exempt from income tax.
